@Article{MirandaPeroGled:2016:EvCiWa,
author = "Miranda, L. C. M. and Perondi, Leonel Fernando and Gleditsch, K.
s.",
affiliation = "{University of Essex} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {University of Essex}",
title = "The evolution of civil war severity, 1816-2005",
journal = "Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy",
year = "2016",
volume = "22",
number = "3",
pages = "247--276",
month = "Aug.",
keywords = "Civil war, Frequency-severity distributions, Severity.",
abstract = "Previous analyses of civil war trends tend to be informal and
consider only post 1945 data. We examine data on civil wars over
the period 1816-2005, using new methods for evolutionary growth
processes. We find a number of new patterns and trends in civil
war that have received little attention in previous research,
including a structural break in frequency of conflict with
decolonialization, as well as evidence of periodicity in civil
conflict. We develop new measures of civil war intensity and
impact, and find that conflicts have been generally more severe in
the 20th than in the 19th century. We also find that the
frequency-severity distribution of civil war does not appear to
follow a power-law distribution, unlike data on many other types
of conflict. Although structural trends suggest an increase in
future civil wars, we discuss possible limiting factors that might
prevent this in light of the recent observed decline in civil wars
after the Cold War.",
doi = "10.1515/peps-2016-0012",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/peps-2016-0012",
issn = "1079-2457",
language = "en",
urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}